Photo: Vedomosti / PhotoXPress.ru
The Leningrad Region entered the top 20 Russian regions in terms of growth in the share of overdue mortgage loans for the purchase of housing under construction. The share of overdue mortgages in St. Petersburg also exceeds the national average. Analysts of the debt consultant collection agency came to such conclusions after analyzing the Central Bank statistics for the first quarter of 2021. Forecasts of realtors that the share of problem mortgage loans will grow – and after it the share of mortgage-backed apartments that are sold at auction at a discount began to come true.
Every tenth loan
The volume of overdue mortgage loans for the purchase of housing under construction on the balance sheets of Russian banks in January-March 2021 increased by 4%, to 7.2 billion rubles. The share of problem loans secured by equity participation agreements (DPA) in relation to the total overdue mortgage portfolio reached 8.9%, having increased by 0.5 percentage points (pp) over three months against an increase by 0.8 pp. for the entire 2020, calculated in the “Debt Consultant”.
“The game of meeting the demand for housing under construction in accordance with the rules introduced a year ago is showing its first negative results, the share of overdue mortgages secured by a preschool institution in the total volume of problem mortgage debt has reached 9%. Whereas at the beginning of this year it barely reached 8.4%, and in March 2020 – 7.9%, ”says Denis Aksyonov, general director of the collection agency. According to his estimates, today every tenth overdue mortgage loan is a loan issued for the purchase of housing under construction.
After the completion of the construction of a house, which lasts an average of three years, a mortgage is drawn up and loans secured by DDU are transferred to the category of general mortgage debt. Mortgage loans secured by DDU as of April 1, 2021 in the total mortgage portfolio of banks in the Russian Federation account for 23%, their share compared to the same date last year increased by 3 percentage points. “The mortgage market of primary housing has its own nuances, most often overdue debt arises when the deadline for delivery of the house is missed,” says Denis Aksyonov. “According to our estimates, it is several times more difficult to restore the solvency of a mortgage on housing under construction, in contrast to the secondary housing market, when real estate is rented out or sold for a short period to generate additional income.”
According to the analysts of Debt Consultant, the real scale of non-payments on mortgages in the primary housing market is much greater, but since lenders are interested in quickly transferring loans secured by rights of claim under the prescriptive institution into collateral, little attention is paid to the problems in the mortgage market under the pre-existing home market. Due to the specifics of construction in the regions in terms of the volume of housing commissioned, its timing and cost, the dynamics of indicators of overdue mortgages is also uneven. In three regions: Tomsk, Sakhalin and Ivanovo regions – in the first quarter the growth of overdue debt exceeded 100% – 145%, 125% and 113%, respectively.